Excess Deaths: Insurance Data Suggests It May Be Even Worse Than We Think

USAA just returned an additional $280M in unused car insurance premiums, bringing the total of returned USAA premiums to $800M since the crisis started.

This is just one of many insurance companies, and there is no reason to think USAA’s experience is unique.

From a risk management perspective, when I hear this, I think about what that money translates into. $800M is a lot fewer smashed up cars, which means a lot fewer injuries and deaths.

This jives with what ER docs are describing in that people are not coming in to the ER for trauma nearly as much as before.

And that means that the excess deaths we are seeing in some places are even more pronounced because they are happening despite a drop in some other causes.

There will be a lot to glean from disaggregated mortality data once it is complete, but it’s significance will not be known until there is corresponding population sampling to provide the denominator of the case fatality rate. Even for flu it is a lot of guesswork, though, because of reporting limitations.

ost it will be a lot cheaper than the trillions of a poorly managed pandemic.